Rosberg - Contract ends at the end of season Kimi - New contract until end of 2017 Vettel - End of 2017 Button - End of the season Alonso - End of 2017 Bottas - End of season ? Massa - End of season Hulkenburg - End of 2017 or 18 ? Perez - End of 2017 Grosjean - end of season Kvyat - End of season? Sainz - End of season Magnussen - End of season Wehrlein - end of season Gutierrez - End of season Palmer - End of season Ericsson - End of season Nasr - End of season Haryanto - End of season
So as you can see it wide open for a replacement for Kimi starting in 2017.
See I was leaning towards Sainz or Grosjean as the second driver at Ferrari but they both might be to ambitious.
Plus somehow I see both drivers could end up at Renault in the next year or two based on Renault looking for new drivers to help push their program along.
Here is how I see the current drivers in F1:
Mercedes Drivers:
Hamilton - Clear number #1 driver; will stay at Merc as long as they want him.
Rosberg - Very good driver and could be a number 1 driver in another team where it doesn't have a top flight driver. Has lost out to most True number 1 drivers.
Overall Impression: Great driver line up with Hamilton and Rosberg but this line up cannot last due to friction that the two drivers are creating within the team. Rosberg will most likely looking for a new drive. I see Wehrlein replacing Rosberg in a year or two; but could be as early as this off season. If this happen look at Rosberg to replace Button at Honda.
Ferrari Drivers:
Vettel - Clearly a Number #1 driver but not as dominate as everyone expected since leaving Red Bull
Kimi - Former Number #1 driver on the downside of his career but still a very strong #2 driver
Overall Impression:Until Ferrari is sure that Kimi cannot produce or Kimi himself pulls the plug; I really don't see a need to sign another driver to replace him. A lot of drivers would like to replace him but currently none really fit what I think Ferrari is looking for in the second car beside Vettel. Grosjean & Hulkenburg seem the closest to me but even Bottas name has been mentioned.
Williams Drivers:
Massa - Always a number #2 driver and now on the down side of his career, even though he holds a current #1 role
Bottas - At the age of 26 is still questioned weather or not he is World Champion driver; that a lone means he probable isn't. Very Good driver but can he be World class?
Overall Impression:Williams needs a bit of a refresh with their drivers line-up with Massa long in the teeth and Bottas as very good driver means that their current driver line-up is most likely holding the team back in the way of results. Rumored Button is moving over to replace Massa but that is only a stop gap replacing a 36 yr with a 35 yr that is also on this downside. They most likely should look at some youth for the second seat beside Bottas; while they look for a potential World Championship driver (not easy)
Red Bull Drivers:
Ricciardo - Seems to be World Championship driver and current #1 at Red Bull but at 27 years old can Red Bull get him a car that can win? Also pressure from Sainz for his seat since he is younger.
Verstappen - Clearly a World Champion in the making and more a matter of how many rather then if but that again comes down to the car he drives.
Overall Impression: Overall the Strongest Potential driving line up of all the F1 teams with Ricciardo, Verstappen & Sainz all looking like potential World Championship drivers. But that also means they will most likely lose one if they cannot loan out one of them. Sainz or Ricciardo will most likely become inpatient with the team forcing them to move on. Sainz rumored to move to Ferrari or loaned to Renualt; the loan would favor both the team and Sainz.
Force India Drivers:
Perez - At the age of 26 proved he wasn't ready a few years ago for a top team drive so where does this leave him? With Force India he hasn't dominated or become a clear cut number #1. Is this due to the strength of Hulkenburg? Sadly, I feel he is a Good Driver for a mid field team, or a weak second.
Hulkenburg - At 28 is clearly a #2 driver this late in his career but where does he fit among the teams on the grid? Never been given a great car but also never true showed his full talent (if he truly had it)
Overall Impression:Good Mid pack drivers line-up but will most likely lose one or both since both drivers think they are better then mid field drivers. Not sure that Force India can also afford both of these drivers long term. Perez with Tele-Mex backing is most likely to stay long term and maybe should be looking at Gutierrez for more Tele-Mex sponsorship money.
Torro Rosso Drivers:
Kvyat - Clearly not World Champion driver as money got him his ride in F1 not talent and it seems his talent may not be good enough to keep him in F1. He needs his backers to step up if he is going to stay much longer. At 22 years he still has development time but he needs more time. Toro Rosso or Sauber seems likely luck holds if he is to stay in F1.
Sainz - Very Hard to judge Sainz without thinking of Verstappen or his father but judged based off Verstappen full up side Sainz seems to be the real deal as he was able to stay equal to the future World Champion. Question is where is he going to get his World championship chance as it won't be at Toro Rosso and unlikely at Red Bull with Ricciardo there. Renault or Honda? Inexperience most likely keeps him out of a Ferrari.
Overall Impression:The Driver academy of Red Bull has really started to pay off for the Big team but how many of their drivers will continue driving for the dancing Bulls? Vettel is already at Ferrari is their most famous one to date but Ricciardo, Verstappen and Sainz seem destine to become World Championship drivers but will they stay with Red Bull or move on to different teams. A good problem to have. As for Kyvat it a matter of when they promote their next young driver as to how long he will last.
McLaren Honda Drivers:
Alonso - One of the best the sport has ever seen? Does he still have the drive at 34 years to true be a number #1 anywhere but at Honda (McLaren) Sadly, His best day are most likely behind him.
Button - While he became World Champ, He was clearly a strong #2 driver and at the age of 36 he doesn't have much more to offer the sport and would be sad to watch him struggle for a few more years.
Overall Impression:A World Championship driving line-up that is starting to get long in the teeth. How much longer can McLaren afford to have such a line-up without a car capable of winning? Second big question is who will replace these former World Champions?
Haas Drivers:
Grosjean- Once though of as World Championship driver, then chased from F1 to only comeback as a though of World Championship driver? Now risked it all to driver for Ferrari Junior in hopes of a ride at Ferrari. Very good driver once he lost his first corner ambitions but is he a World Championship driver? I say not but mainly due to his age; At 30 years old he need a car in the next year or two and when faced with better drivers he wasn't their equal. He is a Good number 2 driver or Number 1 on a weaker team. If he kills his ambition of being a World Champion then Ferrari might place him as a true number 2 beside Vettel.
Gutierrez - Another driver that made the grid due to sponsorship and now back due to links with Ferrari. He clearly has been a never been and will relay on sponsorship with Tele-Mex to continue to keep him in F1. The amount of money that Tele-Mex spends on Perez & Gutierrez they should really have bought Sauber a few years ago.
Overall Impression: Early surprise this season showed the strength of Grosjean but issues with the car set-up has seen Grosjean slip back towards Gutierrez. A very Good starting line-up but how long before Grosjean leave for a bigger team and pressure for an American driver becomes unbearable for them to ignore. Second season will be much harder for this team as they come back to earth.
Renault Drivers:
Magnussen - Very Hard driver to judge with the limited amount of time we have seen him. Mclaren is where he is best judge since Renault is such a dog. Showed early promise before being dropped due to Alonso return. At 26 years old he most likely isn't World Championship driver so is he a good Second driver? Time will tell but he also needs a better car.
Palmer - Never Been and looks like it's his father connections that landed him is seat. It more of a matter of when he will be replaced then if he will be replaced. I think this is his only season.
Overall Impression: The driver line-up this season doesn't matter since they are working behind the scene to rebuild the team towards future seasons. They will look to strength their line-up in a season or two so I don't expect either driver to be around much more then that. Who Renault has on their radar will be an interesting conversation for the next few years but they might fall to same fate that Toyota had; inability to lure top flight drivers to their team and this could/will hold them back.
Manor Drivers:
Wehrlein - Up until last week has been on par or only slightly better then his pay to drive team mate, but an impressive showing in Austria shows that he has potential but simple need more development time before making a jump to a bigger team. We won't know his true potential until he test drivers more of Mercedes or moves to the big team. High hopes for this 21 year old.
Haryanto - Simple a pay driver but has held his own at times against Wehrlein but if he cannot get the funding for next season; he will simple be replaced.
Overall Impression: Another team where the drivers line-up is made up of a support driver for another team and a pay driver so it hard to be impressed with either driver. Mercedes controls one seat selection with funds controlling the other; until Manor doesn't need a pay driver they will never be consider anything more then a back marking team.
Sauber Drivers:
Ericsson - Hard driver to judge since Sauber car is such a dog. He was more impress last season at times but was always nipped by Nasr. How good of a driver is he? Cannot be that good when other mid teams are not knocking on your door to get you to move to a better team.
Nasr - Same as his team mate very hard to judge but has shown some rare pace in a very bad car. Could he succeed in a better team and car? Sadly no one really thinks he can or simple think other are better so he seems stuck with Sauber.
Overall Impression: Another small team as they have been deviated by BMW dropping this team and they have never recovered. They will always fight to survive until another Manufacture or big Sponsor can buy them out. Sadly for them that might never happen as other smaller teams offer more currently then they do.
What does everyone think of next season potential line-ups?
Here is what I think again:
Mercedes Drivers: 1. Hamilton (could also move to Ferrari??; Alonso if Hamilton leaves) 2. Vettel or Bottas Thought it was confirmed last season that Vettel was moving to Mercedes but still has an Ferrari option.
Ferrari Drivers: 1. Vettel (if he stays) 2. Kimi (if Vettel stays) or Perez (unlikely) Whoever signs will most likely be 1 season contract with Max and Ricciardo rumored, even Hamilton, Rosberg & Vettel.
Williams Drivers: 1.Massa 2. Stroll
Red Bull Drivers: 1.Ricciardo 2.Verstappen Sainz & Gasly for 2018 as both current drivers seem ready to move.
Force India (want ever) Drivers: 1.Perez (Wehrlein if Perez Moves to Renault or Ferrari) 2.Ocon
Torro Rosso Drivers: 1. Sainz 2. Gasly
McLaren Honda Drivers: 1. Alonso 2. Vandoorne
Haas Drivers: 1. Grosjean 2. Magnussen
Renault Drivers: 1. Hulkenburg 2. Kubica (Return late this season possible to replace Palmer) or Perez (unlikely)
Sauber Drivers: 1. Ericsson 2. Wehrlein (could be replaced by Japanese driver)
Ferrari Drivers: 1. Vettel 2. Raikkonen/Perez/Sainz Jr.
Vettel will stay, Raikkonen will only stay if they can't get anyone suitable to replace him or Vettel has it written in the terms of his contract for 2018. They also may keep Raikkonen for another season to then try and tempt one of the Red Bull guys.
Williams Drivers: 1. Massa 2. Stroll
Can't see this changing as Williams must have someone who is at least 25 in the team.
Red Bull Drivers: 1. Ricciardo 2. Verstappen
These two are locked down for next season.
Force One Drivers: 1. Perez/Wehrlein/Grosjean 2. Ocon
Perez & Ocon is the preferred line up but Perez maybe pinched. In that case it's Wehrlein likely favourite but he doesn't get on with Ocon. The only other option I can see atm is Grosjean.
Depends on what happens with Sainz Jr. If he goes, then Kvyat will stay as they don't have 2 suitable replacements yet and they don't bring in from other teams. Gasly will be in the car though.
McLaren Mercedes Drivers: 1. Alonso/Sainz Jr. 2. Vandoorne
Depends on whether Alonso stays but he doesn't have a realistic place to go in F1 in my opinion (Renault possibly but unlikely if McLaren are partnered by Mercedes engines).
Pretty sure Leclerc will be in F1 next season. Ferrari will want him to be at Haas but might be difficult to get him a spot unless one of them moves to another team, hence the possible Grosjean to Force One.
Renault Drivers: 1. Hulkenburg 2. Sainz Jr./Alonso/Kubica
Think Sainz Jr is the favourite for the seat but Alonso maybe tempted if he leaves McLaren. Kubica is the outsider if the other two don't move.
Sauber Drivers: 1. Ericsson 2. Wehrlein/Leclerc/Giovanazzi
Ericsson will definitely stay. His relationship with Wehrlein is not good so Wehrlein could be moved to Force One if a spot opens there. Ferrari's relationship with Sauber might get Leclerc a seat here if Haas is full. Giovanazzi will be a real outsider.
I agree, I doubt there will be any changes at mercedes. Bottas is settling in nicely and the team would prefer to have an unofficial number 2 to maximise team points without risk. Alonso will be trying hard to get the merc seat or any other
